The Grim REPO: a looming market crash?
The world of finance is often marked by waves of optimism and enthusiasm, followed by periods of doubt and apprehension. As we find ourselves in the latter part of 2023, a foreboding shadow looms over the global financial markets, casting doubts about the sustainability of the economic recovery and raising the question: is a market […]
Scarce capital yields up, but scared capital yields down
If the past 20-odd years (essentially since China entered WTO) can be characterised by a so-called ‘savings glut’, the future will more likely be a feature of a ‘capital thirst’. That means interest rates could be higher than current levels – scarce capital. The present, though, is a result of an extraordinary increase in US interest […]
Bullish on Decarbonisation… less so the price of carbon
As macro investors, we seek to position ourselves at the juxtaposition of policymakers and markets. While the drive for decarbonisation has become increasingly divisive in the UK, the movement has nonetheless secured a broad mandate globally, and we see an opportunity. We regard naysayers of decarbonisation and the ESG investment phenomenon in the same light […]
How regulation drives competitive advantage in the energy transition
Energy transition and reducing emissions is a global priority, but unfortunately, fossil fuel demand is still growing. The most significant driver of this growth is emerging markets, where GDP growth is still highly correlated with fossil fuel demand. While there are many projections of future emissions reductions, it is important to recognise that current regulations […]
Is China on a collision course with economic reality?
The People’s Bank of China (PBoC) continued to loosen monetary policy in August as it attempted to revive the flagging economy. On the other hand, the US continued to defy predictions of doom and gloom while the Dollar strengthened. In our view, the Chinese currency is too strong. But rather than doing what needs to […]
What if the US and China debt situations cause systemic risk?
The two debt situations are very different in the sense that, unlike previous financial crises, the US debt risk is now coming from the public debt stock rather than the private one, while in China, it is the opposite – the risks are in the private sector. That means that in both cases, there are […]
Volatility and Merger Arbitrage: where are the opportunities?
We often get this same question: How do we expect Merger Arbitrage to perform in varying volatility and market environments? To this end, in this article, we review historical and empirical evidence to highlight the neutral nature of Merger Arbitrage and the opportunity set that we see in different volatility environments. Equity Volatility & Merger […]
Six reasons why we think EM may outperform DM in the next decade
Unless you are deep in the woods of it, like we are, you may be forgiven for not having noticed that Emerging Markets (EM) have outperformed Developed Markets (DM) year-to-date (YTD). Investors and the financial media alike have ignored EM for the last decade, and perhaps rightly so, as it has underperformed DM over this […]
What makes an alternative “alternative”?
What are some problems that investors typically have with their alternative selections? Toby Hayes, PM of the Trium Alternative Growth strategy, recently went into the Portfolio Adviser offices to discuss what makes an alternative “alternative”.
How can one use ESG screening to find shorting candidates?
