The Middle Kingdom produced some magic
Chinese officials announced a set of measures this September 2024, the calibre of which could be compared to the ones introduced after the GFC in 2008 and the China Real Estate Crisis of 2015
Category: Trium Talks
Gold: Mine over Metal?
In June we explained why we were constructive on gold. We outlined the deep relationship between gold and real interest rates and showed how that relationship has appeared to change as the marginal buyer shifted from Western investors to Emerging Market central banks. Much of the central bank buying is secretive. While the increase in officially declared […]
Diversification is not a free lunch
Warren Buffett, one of the greatest investors of our lifetime, once said, “Diversification is a protection against ignorance.” Diversification among financial assets or investment strategies is designed to mitigate investor portfolio losses. The simplest form of diversification, advised by many wealth managers and financial planners, is the 60/40 balanced portfolio. A 60% allocation to equities […]
The markets dodged more than just a bullet
The market moves over the last week or so have been quite severe, to state the obvious. My thoughts on what caused the moves are a little more circumspect than what the standard narrative would suggest. At the most basic level, I think all the moves can be traced back to the most crowded trade […]
Tapping into the investment opportunity in water
The urgent need for investment in water infrastructure has become a national political issue in the UK, driven by both media and grassroots organisations frustrated by poor water quality in lakes, rivers, and beaches. The UK’s water industry has a unique ownership structure, having been completely privatised in the 1980s and now including a mix […]
How is electricity demand growth creating investment opportunities?
The increase in electricity demand due to artificial intelligence and data centers has been widely discussed over the last few months. But it’s not just data centers that are driving load growth. Most decarbonisation stories are also linked to electrification. This demand growth presents several investment opportunities, especially across utilities, mining, and industrials. The majority […]
Deglobalisation shines a path to higher gold prices
Gold. The investor’s best friend in helping to preserve value over centuries. And now potentially on the cusp of major bull market. Gold preserves its value due to its elemental scarcity. Rarity at an elemental level protects it against human ingenuity trying to undercut its value. Diamonds lack the same benefit as at a chemical […]
Out with the new, In with the old
In 1923, a then-little-known economist, John Maynard Keynes, was analysing the commodity futures markets when he stumbled on a peculiar feature of futures pricing. He noticed that the costs of commodity storage, which are often very high, were baked into the contracts’ pricing. He observed that speculators invested in commodity futures would not only receive […]
Is large-cap dominance going to persevere?
In recent years, many investors have focused on a restricted subset of the investment universe. Acronyms such as FAANG and MAMAA and more recent references to the Magnificent 7 and Sensational 6 have taken headlines and monopolised investors’ attention. This has some merit as we have seen these names substantially outperform smaller peers. However, investing […]
JPY: a tug of war between BOJ and MOF
The weakness of the Japanese Yen (JPY) is becoming disorderly to the extent that it is starting to worry the Ministry of Finance (MOF), prompting it not only to ask the Bank of Japan (BOJ) to intervene directly in the currency market but also putting pressure on the Central Bank to expedite and increase the […]
