What’s on our mind for 2025?

Shenan Dhanani

Shenan Dhanani

Co-CEO

Shenan Dhanani

Shenan Dhanani

Co-CEO
Shenan co-founded Trium in 2013 and is Co-CEO of Trium Capital. Shenan has worked in financial markets for 20 years. He, along with Donald Pepper, has overall responsibility for the management of Trium Capital, including the recruitment of Portfolio Managers. He is a member of Trium’s Executive Committee. Before founding Trium, Shenan ran the origination, structuring and marketing of structured fund derivative products in EMEA and the Americas for HSBC. Prior to this, he held sales and relationship management roles in the Securities Lending and Investment Products Group of JPMorgan. He began his career in 1997 at Morgan Stanley where he held various roles within the Treasury and Financial Services unit, before joining Fortis Bank as a senior member of the Hedge Fund Sales team. He holds an MBA from Imperial College, London.

Latest Insights

Donald Pepper

Co-CEO

Donald Pepper

Co-CEO
Donald joined Trium in October 2017 as Co-CEO. He is a Trium Multi-Strategy Co-Portfolio Manager and a member of the Trium Multi-Strategy Committee. Donald began his career in finance in Fixed Income Sales at Goldman Sachs in 1987, moving to Prime Brokerage Sales in 2000, where he was responsible for Relative Value, Multi-Strategy, Credit and Global Macro hedge funds. From 2003-2008 Donald was Managing Director of Prime Brokerage for EMEA at Merrill Lynch. In 2008 Donald moved to the buy-side, as Head of Hedge Funds at New Star Asset Management/Henderson Global Investors where his responsibilities included being Co-Portfolio Manager of two Fund of Hedge Funds. Donald was an Investment Director at TT International (2010-2012) before joining Old Mutual Global Investors (2012-2017) as Managing Director of Alternatives, where his responsibilities included being a member of the Style Premia Investment Committee. Donald read Philosophy, Politics & Economics at The Queen’s College, Oxford where he received an MA. He is a CFA Charterholder and holds the CFA Certificate in ESG Investing.
Trium Multi-Strategy UCITS
Trium Multi-Strategy UCITS Fund

Latest Insights

Share on

Corporate

As the end of 2024 fast approaches, our Portfolio Managers have been reflecting on the year gone by and what might be in store for the year ahead. We took this opportunity to simply ask them ‘What’s on your mind for 2025?”. Below are some of the highlights from their responses:

Trump, Trump and Trump

With over 70 countries hosting elections around the world in 2024, there was one election that dominated the headlines, the US election, which will see Donald Trump return to the White House in January 2025. His re-election dominates many of the views for 2025, from Trump’s potential impact on the Inflation Reduction Act, to the macro impact of potential new tariffs, and more broadly concerning the US’s future role on the global stage. Our investment teams consistently identified Ukraine, the Middle East, and BRICS as regions to watch out for in 2025 with a Trump administration in power.

All eyes will continue to be on the Fed’s actions and associated US economic data going into 2025. Trump’s nominations to the Securities and Exchange Commission chair and the Federal Trade Commission chair are vitally important. We’ve seen an increase in M&A activity, despite regulatory and deal scrutiny ramping up. The new administration’s approach may bring uncertainty, which typically brings volatility and, with it, investment opportunity. 

US Tech and Other Risk Assets

Another popular topic was US equity market returns driven by a few major tech stocks. Is it a bubble, and how sensitive are markets to these key names? Whenever we see such concentration, we expect to see increased volatility, especially as much of the tech valuations are based on confidence in rapidly evolving and relatively new technologies e.g. Artificial Intelligence. Additionally, we could see further volatility because of the continuing change of market participants, especially ‘fast’ and retail money – zero-day options now represent over 50% of all traded options.

Asia-led volatility

The Trump rhetoric points to his administration being tough on China, this is not exactly news – trade & currency wars between China and the US were aplenty during his previous administration, albeit in a low-inflation environment. This time around, will Trump try to do things differently, after all he is a dealmaker and has invited Xi Jinping to his inauguration, so perhaps there’s a sign that both powers will be prepared to find common ground.

Our Portfolio Managers have observed a significant shift in China’s global economic role. China now finances many emerging markets and has increased investments in Europe and other developed countries. Additionally, it has been reducing reliance on the US dollar while accumulating substantial gold reserves, both openly and through less transparent channels. What does this mean for US hegemony? Only time will tell. Further east, the Japanese Yen is likely to still be seen as a funding currency, given the substantial interest rate differential versus the dollar and other higher interest rate currencies. Given the prospect of an inflationary Trump administration, we are less likely to see if this remains the case, which could lead to another carry trade unwind like we saw in August of this year.

Welcoming 2025

At Trium, we are very excited for the year ahead. Geopolitical and economic uncertainty typically lead to volatility and price dispersion – which provides a fertile environment for our investment strategies to perform. We remain confident that we have invested in the right talent to keep delivering value to our investors through 2025.

Thank you to all those who have partnered with us throughout 2024, we value your support and the trust you put in us. We wish you a very happy festive season, and a prosperous 2025! 

RELATED INSIGHTS

A man walking through a hiking trail in the Forest
  • Trium Talks

The future’s bright for Merger Arbitrage

Felix Lo

  • 3 min
Green plant sprout in cracked soil
  • Trium Talks

Trump isn’t all doom and gloom for sustainable investing

Joe Mares, Tom Ayres

  • 7 min
  • Trium Talks

Gold: Mine over Metal?

Thomas Roderick

  • 6 min
  • Trium Talks

Tapping into the investment opportunity in water

Joe Mares, Tom Ayres

  • 5 min
VIEW ALL
SIGN UP TO TRIUM TALKS
Trium Talks triangle

CONTACT US

Please contact us to hear more about our solutions for investors and managers, as well as if you have any other enquiries.
CONTACT US

Investor Type

To access Trium Capital strategies, please select your investor type and territory from the below options:

Important legal information

Please indicate by clicking the box below, that you have read and agree to the following important information:

The content on www.trium-capital.com (the “Site”) is general information which is provided without any warranties of any kind, whether express or implied by any means whatsoever. While we have sought to ensure that the content contained on this Site is timely and accurate, we make no representation, warranty or statement of any kind with respect to the Site and the timeliness, accuracy or correctness of the content provided herein. We may change the content at any time without notice and, to the fullest extent permitted by law, will not be liable for errors or omissions in the content.

Any entry into a contract with any party mentioned on this Site or in respect of any product referred to on this Site shall be subject to the terms of that contract, and the information contained on this Site shall not constitute a representation, warranty or statement in respect of such contract to the fullest extent permitted by law.

By using this Site, you acknowledge that the Site contains copyrighted materials as well as trademarks and service marks that are owned by Trium Capital LLP, or its affiliates (“Trium”) or third parties. Nothing contained in this Site shall be construed as conferring any right to any copyright, trademark or other proprietary interest of Trium or any third party. You agree not to infringe upon any copyright, trademark, service mark or patent right, and to comply with all law and regulation in respect of any permitted use or viewing thereof. You also agree that you will not alter or remove any copyright, trademark or any other notice from any authorised copy of the content on this Site.

Certain links in this Site connect to websites maintained by third parties. We make no representations or warranties as to any content contained in these third party sites and take no responsibility for such sites. Our link to another site is not an endorsement of that site.

We are not responsible for providing you with, on behalf of anyone other than ourselves, information required under Article 13 or 14 of Regulation (EU) 2016/679 of the European Parliament and of the Council of 27 April 2016, on the protection of natural persons with regard to the processing of personal data and on the free movement of such data, and repealing Directive 95/46/EC (General Data Protection Regulation). We may provide you with access to other websites which contain information pursuant to such regulatory obligations on behalf of third parties, but we make no representation, warranty or statement as to the completeness, accuracy or truthfulness of such information.

In no event will Trium be liable for any damages, expenses or losses, including without limitation direct, indirect, consequential, special, incidental or punitive damages resulting from or caused by the use of this Site or the information herein (or any information on a linked website), the inability to use this Site or the information herein, any delay in operation or transmission or any communication line or system failure.

Your access to and use of this Site are subject to the terms and conditions contained herein. By accessing and using this Site, you accept these terms and conditions, without limitation or qualification. These terms and conditions may be supplemented, amended and/or rectified at any time by Trium.

This Site is operated and issued by Trium Capital LLP which is authorised and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority (Register number 497640). You can gain access to the FCA’s rules and guidance notes from the following link: www.fca.org.uk.

Please visit the main website of Trium Capital LLP, www.trium-capital.com for full regulatory disclosures.

This website is issued by Trium Capital LLP, a limited liability partnership incorporated in England & Wales (Partnership number OC343790) which is authorised and regulated by the UK Financial Conduct Authority (FCA) (497640).

© 2024 Trium Capital. All Rights Reserved

NEWS

CONTACT

INVESTOR PORTAL