Why radioactive management will be key in navigating the energy transition
Uranium has been the standout commodity of the past 12 months – nearly doubling in price to $100 per pound, with nuclear firmly back on the policy agenda as part of the green energy transition. The elemental surge has drawn the attention of many a punter who might otherwise be engaged in bidding up the […]
Will the Inflation Reduction Act be Trumped?
With victories in the Iowa and Nevada caucuses and New Hampshire primary under his belt, it is becoming clear that Donald Trump will likely become the next Republican candidate for the 2024 US election. With his potential return to office now almost within reach, there are increasing concerns surrounding the future of the Inflation Reduction […]
Shipping costs may break the immaculate disinflation narrative
• We may be on the verge of an unprecedented shipping crisis as a combination of climate change and geopolitics disruptions ensues. This is a longish-term trend, part of the broader global supply chain troubles, a process whose effects may be brought forward this year, depending on what happens in the Middle East and, […]
Liquidity is still plentiful
• Despite all concerns, which have persisted since late May 2023, the level of liquidity in the US banking system is still around the highest level it has ever been, even during all of the quantitative easing (QE pre-2020), and is still two times more than during the repo crisis level in September 2019. • […]
NIRP it in the bud
A Negative (NIRP) – or Zero (ZIRP) – interest rate policy works best when the private sector is running a deficit. Low interest rates then provide borrowing relief and may cushion the strain on households’ and corporations’ balance sheets (especially if financial assets also rise as a result). However, when the private sector is running […]
What’s on our mind for 2024?
2024: Where should investors look in the ‘Year of the Vote’
Over half of the world will vote next year, expect a lot of dispersion and investment opportunities. While everyone is focused on the 2024 US Presidential Election, and rightfully so due to Trump still being a leading contender (and political polarisation in the US at quite elevated levels), we are excited for the opportunity set […]
Don’t cry for Argentina…yet
It’s officially over. After six months of campaigning and election surprises, Javier Milei has been elected in a surprising run-off. The President-Elect, a self-proclaimed anarcho-capitalist, has been an outspoken critic of public spending, export taxes, and regulations, vowing to privatise many state-owned enterprises. However, his lack of political support from the other government branches, combined […]
The Yellen Dilemma: to spend or not to spend?
October was a month where headlines were dominated (again) by extreme moves in rates, with the action this time precipitated by a dovish indication that the Fed is officially on hold. Yet somewhat less well covered was a surprisingly poor earnings season for many US large-cap companies, which was strangely combined with a contradictory blowout […]
The Venezuelan recovery story: will it last?
The easing of US sanctions on Venezuelan bonds stands as a tangible indicator of a recalibrated approach. While initial sanctions were imposed due to political and humanitarian concerns, lifting restrictions acknowledges the necessity for nuanced engagement, balancing the imperative of internal stability in Venezuela with global energy-related concerns. Finally, after a long time, the “Barbados […]
