The Yellen Dilemma: to spend or not to spend?

October was a month where headlines were dominated (again) by extreme moves in rates, with the action this time precipitated by a dovish indication that the Fed is officially on hold. Yet somewhat less well covered was a surprisingly poor earnings season for many US large-cap companies, which was strangely...

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The Venezuelan recovery story: will it last?

The easing of US sanctions on Venezuelan bonds stands as a tangible indicator of a recalibrated approach. While initial sanctions were imposed due to political and humanitarian concerns, lifting restrictions acknowledges the necessity for nuanced engagement, balancing the imperative of internal stability in Venezuela with global energy-related concerns. Finally, after...

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The Grim REPO: a looming market crash?

The world of finance is often marked by waves of optimism and enthusiasm, followed by periods of doubt and apprehension. As we find ourselves in the latter part of 2023, a foreboding shadow looms over the global financial markets, casting doubts about the sustainability of the economic recovery and raising...

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Scarce capital yields up, but scared capital yields down

If the past 20-odd years (essentially since China entered WTO) can be characterised by a so-called ‘savings glut’, the future will more likely be a feature of a ‘capital thirst’. That means interest rates could be higher than current levels – scarce capital. The present, though, is a result of...

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